Labulen Silicon: Me yasa Rasha Bata Bukatar 'Yancin Semiconductor

An sanya karancin microelectronics akan yakin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China. Mafi ƙarfi na wannan duniyar ba zato ba tsammani ya gane cewa kasancewar a cikin ƙasa na masana'antar masana'antar ta semiconductor yana da sanyi. Bayan haka, tare da masana'anta, kamar, alal misali, TSMC, kasar za ta tabbatar da ba kawai tsaron kasa ba, har ma da kyautata tattalin arziki shekaru da yawa masu zuwa.

Hakazalika, manajojin kasashe daban-daban sun fahimci mahimmancin 'yancin kai na silicon ba jiya ba, amma sun fara aiki tare da yin magana mai ƙarfi game da wannan batu kwanan nan. China, Amurka, Tarayyar Turai, Rasha ... Kowa yana son samun cikakken 'yancin kai na silicon.

Amma, manazarta, masana tattalin arziki da ma masana'antun sarrafa kayan masarufi kamar TSMC da kansu sun yi la'akari da shirin gina masana'antar semiconductor har ma a cikin Amurka da Turai, a sanya shi a hankali, wani aiki mai ban sha'awa. Kuma akwai kyawawan dalilai da yawa akan hakan. An fara daga tsadar tsadar ƴancin kai da ƙarewa tare da tsawan lokaci mai tsawo a masana'antar da kowa ke samar da komai.

Gabaɗaya, zan yi ƙoƙarin kada in zama mai ban sha'awa, amma ba ma son kai ba, in faɗi dalilin da yasa a zahiri ba Rasha, ko Amurka, ko wata ƙasa ba ta buƙatar masana'antu kamar TSMC. Bari mu fara, kamar yadda aka saba, daga farko. Wato, daga tsare-tsaren yankuna daban-daban don bunkasa masana'antar semiconductor.

Wane ne a cikin me yawa

Ana ɗaukar kasar Sin a matsayin babbar barazana ga ma'auni mai laushi a cikin masana'antar semiconductor na duniya. Su ne na farko da suka yanke shawarar "je yaƙi" don 'yancin kai. Sun fi kowa alkawarin zuba kudi a wannan sana’ar. Misali, a cikin 2014, gwamnatin daular Celestial ta buga "Shawarwari don Ci gaban Masana'antar Haɗin Kai ta Ƙasa", wanda ke kira da a saka hannun jari aƙalla dala biliyan 150 don haɓaka samar da semiconductor na gida. Kuma tuni a shekarar 2020, ma'aikatar masana'antu ta kasar Sin ta sanar da shirin zuba jarin akalla dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.4 a cikin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zamani na kasar nan da shekaru 5. Bisa ra'ayin jam'iyya mai mulki, a shekarar 2025 ya kamata a samar da akalla kashi 70 cikin 100 na kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin kasar.

{Asar Amirka a al'adance tana aiki a matsayin babban abokin adawar mafi girman zalunci. A cikin 2017, Majalisar Masu Ba da Shawarar Kimiyya da Fasaha ta Amurka ta fitar da rahoto, "Tabbatar da Jagorancin Dogon Amurka a cikin Semiconductor," yana bayyana hangen nesa ga gasa na Amurka a cikin masana'antu. Takardar ta ƙunshi maki da yawa, waɗanda suka haɗa da saka hannun jari a R&D, yaƙi da leƙen asirin masana'antu, ƙirƙirar masana'antar semiconductor, da ƙari. Tuni a lokacin bazara na 2020, a ƙarƙashin Trump, an haɗa wani fasalin shirin a cikin Dokar Hukumar Tsaro ta ƙasa (NDAA). Musamman ma, ya tanadi tallafin dala biliyan 15 don jawo hankalin masana'antun masana'antu na semiconductor zuwa kasar, kamar yadda ya kasance daga baya, TSMC. Za a ware wani dala biliyan 12 don nazarin semiconductor da kansu. Kadan fiye da dala biliyan 1 yana cikin R&D. Sabon shugaban kasa Joe Biden a cikin Maris 2021 ya yi barazanar tallafawa masana'antar semiconductor na cikin gida da dala biliyan 50.

Kwanan nan, Turai sau da yawa ta koma baya daga kutsen IT na abokan hulɗarta na Yamma. Ana iya ganin wannan aƙalla a cikin tsauraran maganganu na rashin amincewa da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta kwanan nan a kan babban IT-hudu na Amurka. Komawa a cikin Mayu 2013, Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta sanar da dabarun EU don haɓaka micro- da nanoelectronics. Takardar ta yi kira da a saka hannun jari a bangaren tattalin arzikin da aka kebe na akalla Yuro biliyan 35 (ko dala biliyan 41) nan da shekarar 2025. A cikin 2018, EU ta faɗaɗa shirinta. Ya ƙara irin waɗannan abubuwa kamar ƙirƙirar ikon mallaka na dabaru, jawo ƙarin kuɗi, ƙirƙirar hanya daga mallakar fasaha zuwa samfura, da ƙari. Tuni a karshen shekarar 2020, kasashe 17 na EU suka rattaba hannu kan wata sanarwa inda suka dauki alkawarin zuba jarin da ya kai Yuro biliyan 145 a masana'antar tare da kashe su, musamman wajen samar da na'urori masu sarrafawa har zuwa 2 nm.

Da alama an dade ana ganin Rasha ba ta damu da halin da ake ciki na lantarki ba, muddin dai ya biya bukatun sojojin. Duk da haka, a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata ko fiye, gwamnati tana sannu a hankali, ba ta da kwarin gwiwa, amma har yanzu tana ninkaya don samun yancin kai. Misali, a cikin Janairu 2020, Rasha ta amince da dabarun bunkasa masana'antar lantarki har zuwa 2030. Babban abin da ya sa a gaba, ba shakka, shi ne kara yawan kason kayan aikin cikin gida a cikin kasar, saboda dalilai na tsaron kasa, da kuma samar da gasa da kuma daidaita kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje. Tabbas, shirin kuma yana shafar masana'antar semiconductor. Gwamnati na fatan cewa ta hanyar 2030 masana'antu za su bayyana a cikin Tarayyar Rasha don ƙirƙirar microcircuits tare da "kauri" daga 65 zuwa 7 har ma da 5 nm. Kyawawan kishi, an ba da cewa tsarin fasaha na yanzu don samar da gida shine 130 nm. A daya hannun, Baikal Electronics ya dade da ƙware 28 nm, amma oda yin gyare-gyare a Taiwan. Ga komai game da komai har zuwa 2024, gwamnati na shirin ware kusan rubles biliyan 266 (ko dala biliyan 4.4 a farashin canji na Janairu Babur 2011 Black 2020).

Kayan alatu mai ban sha'awa

Hanyar waɗannan iko a bayyane take: don dogaro da kai. Duk da haka, alal misali, Steven Ezell, mataimakin shugaban Cibiyar Harkokin Watsa Labarai da Innovation Foundation (ITIF) na manufofin kirkire-kirkire na duniya, bisa la'akari da yawancin bincike, yana jayayya cewa irin wannan burin shine utopian. Saboda dalilai da dama.

A farkon farawa, haɓaka masana'antar ku yanzu yana da matuƙar tsada har ma ga ƙasa mafi arziki. Kuma gobe za ta yi tsada. Kuma wannan ba ƙari ba ne na waƙa, amma gaskiya ne. Kudin samarwa saboda karuwar gasa da buƙatun ƙirƙira yana haɓaka a zahiri kowace rana.

A shekarar 2017, kamfanin TSMC ya yi alkawarin gina masana’antar sarrafa kayan masarufi mai karfin 3 nm a kasar Taiwan kan kudi dalar Amurka biliyan 20. A shekarar 2019, wannan kamfani ya bayyana shirin gina wata masana’anta mai karfin nm 5 a Arizona kan kudi dala biliyan 12. shekaru, kuma Hasashen farashi yana canzawa sosai. A cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA) a cikin 2020, an kiyasta matsakaicin kuɗin da aka kashe na 14-16 nm a dala biliyan 13, 10 nm - $ 15 biliyan, 7 nm - $ 18 biliyan, 5 nm - $ 20. A wannan yanayin. Ginin masana'antar kanta yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi tsadar abubuwan masana'antar.

Wani abu mai mahimmanci kuma mara arha shine R&D, wani abu wanda babu wanda masana'antu ba zasu yi aiki ba. Zuba jari a cikin binciken na'urorin lantarki kuma yana haɓaka cikin saurin fushi. Trite saboda kowace shekara ana buƙatar ƙarin sabbin abubuwa. Don bayyanawa, a cewar SIA/ITIF, ana buƙatar ƙarin bincike sau 18 don kiyaye Dokar Moore a cikin 2020 fiye da na 70s. Wani lamari mai ban sha'awa yana taimakawa wajen yin tunanin ma'auni na zuba jari a R & D: yawan bincike da ci gaba a fagen semiconductor shine na biyu kawai ga girman irin wannan aikin a cikin magunguna.

Matsayin manyan masana'antun semiconductor na duniya a cikin 2020. IC Insight

A cikin 2020, Intel ya yarda cewa shekara guda bayan shirye-shiryen haɓaka na'ura mai sarrafa 7nm. A lokaci guda, Intel, duk da rikicin, yana ci gaba da kasancewa babban mai siyar da samfuran semiconductor a duniya. Lag din bai kasance saboda gaskiyar cewa Intel ba zato ba tsammani ya manta yadda ake yin na'urori masu sarrafawa. Samun ƙididdigewa hanya ce mai matuƙar wahala da tsada.

Sannan kuma, yin na’ura mai sarrafa kwamfuta wani bangare ne na matsalar. Har yanzu yana buƙatar siyarwa. Kuma don sayarwa gwargwadon yiwuwa. Masana'antar guntu wani tsari ne tare da babban matakin raguwa. Manyan dillalai kamar Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Micron, da SK Hynix sun kwashe shekaru suna gina na'urori masu sarrafawa na gaba don wani yanki mai mahimmanci na tallace-tallacen sassan zamani. Ba za a sami masu sarrafa 5nm ba tare da tallace-tallacen 7nm ba. In ba haka ba, wannan masana'antar ba ta aiki kawai - tattalin arzikin zai ruguje.

Bisa ga wannan, Stephen Ezell ya kammala da cewa da wuya kowace ƙasa ita kaɗai za ta iya jurewa ƙarar farashi, sarƙaƙƙiya da sikelin da ake buƙata don ƙirƙira da samar da kayan aikin semiconductor.

Tare da duniya

Sai dai ba kudi ne kawai matsalar da kasar da ke da burin dogaro da kanta za ta magance ba. Masana'antar semiconductor tana da mafi hadaddun sarkar darajar tarwatsewar yanki na kowace masana'antu. Ƙirƙirar kwakwalwan kwamfuta ya haɗa da matakai masu yawa. Kamfanoni daga kasashe daban-daban sun sami ci gaba a cikin matakai daban-daban. Sabili da haka, don adana kuɗi da kuma cimma mafi kyawun inganci, masu siyarwa suna shirye don jigilar kayan su a duniya har sai sun kasance shuɗi a fuska. Haka abin ya faru a tarihi. Wannan ita ce kawai hanyar da masana'antu ke aiki a yanzu.

Anan, kuma, akwai misalin da ba na almara ba. Ana hakar siliki a China. A Japan, ana yanka ingots zuwa faranti marasa rufi. A cikin Amurka, ana juya su zuwa ma'auni na masana'anta tare da haɗaɗɗen da'irori masu aiki. Bayan haka, ana aika samfurin da aka kammala zuwa Vietnam ko Malaysia don haɗuwa, gwaji da marufi (ATP). Abubuwan da aka gyara suna tafiya ko tafiya zuwa China, Koriya ta Kudu da Amurka don haɗa su cikin samfuran ƙarshe. Kuma bayan haka ne, kwamfutar hannu, wayoyin hannu da kwamfyutocin tafi-da-gidanka suna yawo a duniya.

Kuma wannan shine mafi sauƙaƙan algorithm. A haƙiƙa, kamfanoni daga ƙasashe kusan 25 ne ke da hannu wajen samar da na'urar na'ura mai kwakwalwa. Daga hakowa zuwa siyarwa, kayan da ke cikin na'urar da aka gama ta ke haye kan iyakokin duniya matsakaicin sau 70. Gabaɗaya, sufuri kaɗai na iya ɗaukar kwanaki 100 ko fiye.

Logistics a cikin masana'antar semiconductor tsari ne mai kyau. Ba zai yuwu a yi tunanin cewa wata kasa daga cikin kasashen za ta iya dauka tare da kawar da kansu cikin rashin sanin ya kamata ba tare da lalata tattalin arzikin kasar ba.

Shin yana aiki? Kar ku taɓa!

Fara samar da semiconductor mai dogaro da kai a wata ƙasa ko wata ƙasa yana da tsada da wahala. Kuma ba shi da ma'ana. Kamar yadda na lura a sama, juyin halittar na'urori masu sarrafawa ya dogara sosai kan siyar da abubuwan tsararru na yanzu. Manazarta a Intel ko TSMC suna yin ƙididdige ƙididdiga masu ban mamaki don yin la'akari da haɗari kuma suna ware ƙarin kuɗi ga R&D da haɓaka masana'anta fiye da waɗanda aka ware a ƙarshe. Idan kowanne daga cikin manyan masu karfin yana da na'urorin sarrafa kansa, kasuwar tallace-tallace za ta ragu. Samfuran zai zama mara amfani ga kowa da kowa. Zuba jari a cikin bincike zai ragu. Ci gaba zai ragu.

Kamar duk abin da aka rubuta a sama, ba almara ba ne. Daya daga cikin shugabannin TSMC, Mark Liu, ya bayyana cewa Amurka da Turai ba sa bukatar kafuwar nasu a watan Afrilu. Ƙirƙirar sarƙoƙi mai ƙima a cikin Amurka da EU zai haifar da ƙirƙirar adadi mai yawa na "ƙarfin mara riba", in ji shi.

Eh, ƙarancin halin yanzu ba shine mafi kyawun yanayi ga masu samarwa da masu amfani ba. Koyaya, wannan ƙarancin ya yi nisa da na farko a masana'antar. Alal misali, a cikin 2017-2018, kowa da kowa ya rasa DRAM, flash memory modules, microcontrollers, da sauransu. Duk da haka, babu wanda ya fara gina sababbin masana'antu - masana'antu sun warware matsalolinta ba tare da tsangwama daga 'yan siyasa ba. Zai yanke hukunci yanzu.

A cewar Mark Liu iri ɗaya, ƙarancin da ake fama da shi a halin yanzu shine sakamakon ƙarin booking da abubuwa biyu suka haifar. Da farko, dillalai da yawa sun garzaya don maye gurbin Huawei lokacin da Amurka ta ba da umarnin a raba kamfanin na China da kamfanin Taiwan. Na biyu, dillalai sun garzaya don yin odar abubuwan da za a yi a nan gaba saboda cutar ta COVID-19, suna tsoron yuwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki (wanda, kamar yadda kuke gani a yau, bai faru ba). Sakamakon haka, nauyin da ke kan layin ya ninka sau biyu idan aka kwatanta da yadda aka saba.

A lokaci guda kuma, a cewar shugaban TSMC, ainihin ƙarfin da kamfani ke da shi ya isa ya gamsar da buƙatun da aka saba yi na chips tare da ajiya. Kuma wannan bukata ta al'ada tabbas zata dawo shekara mai zuwa. Abin da kawai ke tabbatar da rashin amfanin gina ƙarin masana'antu don samun kuɗi masu yawa, ba a Amurka ba, ko a China, ko a cikin EU, ko a Rasha.

Kuma eh, da an fara wannan labarin gabaɗayan kuma an gama shi da sauri. Mutum ne kawai ya bayyana yanayin utopian na ra'ayin masana'antar semiconductor mai dogaro da kai ta amfani da misalin Japan. A cikin 80-90s, akwai daidaito tsakanin Amurka da Japan a cikin kasuwar masana'antar semiconductor: sun raba wannan masana'antar kusan rabin. Koyaya, a cikin rabin na biyu na 90s da farkon 00s, ra'ayoyin game da makomar waɗannan ƙasashe sun fara bambanta.

{Asar Amirka ta zaɓi hanyar ba da izini da samarwa ba tare da yin simintin gyaran kafa ba, yayin da Japan, akasin haka, ta yanke shawarar mayar da wani muhimmin sashi na hanyoyin haɗin ƙima a ƙasarta. Don haka, a yau masana'antar semiconductor ta Japan tana raguwa. Rabon Ƙasar Rising Sun bai wuce kashi 10% na kasuwa ba. Ganin cewa rabon Amurka kusan bai ragu ba tun lokacin.

Labulen Silicon: Me yasa Rasha Bata Bukatar 'Yancin Semiconductor

An sanya karancin microelectronics akan yakin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China. Mafi ƙarfi na wannan duniyar ba zato ba tsammani ya gane cewa samun nasu masana'antar semiconductor a cikin ƙasa yana da kyau. Bayan haka, tare da masana'anta, kamar, alal misali, TSMC, kasar za ta tabbatar da ba kawai tsaron kasa ba, har ma da kyautata tattalin arziki shekaru da yawa masu zuwa.

Hakazalika, manajojin kasashe daban-daban sun fahimci mahimmancin 'yancin kai na silicon ba jiya ba, amma sun fara aiki tare da yin magana mai ƙarfi game da wannan batu kwanan nan. China, Amurka, EU, Rasha… Kowa yana son cimma cikakken 'yancin kai na silicon.

Amma, manazarta, masana tattalin arziki da ma masana'antun sarrafa kayan masarufi kamar TSMC da kansu sun yi la'akari da shirin gina masana'antar semiconductor har ma a cikin Amurka da Turai, a sanya shi a hankali, wani aiki mai ban sha'awa. Kuma akwai kyawawan dalilai da yawa akan hakan. An fara daga tsadar tsadar ƴancin kai da ƙarewa tare da tsawan lokaci mai tsawo a masana'antar da kowa ke samar da komai.

Gabaɗaya, zan yi ƙoƙarin kada in zama mai ban sha'awa, amma ba ma son kai ba, in faɗi dalilin da yasa a zahiri ba Rasha, ko Amurka, ko wata ƙasa ba ta buƙatar masana'antu kamar TSMC. Bari mu fara, kamar yadda aka saba, daga farko. Wato, daga tsare-tsaren yankuna daban-daban don bunkasa masana'antar semiconductor.

Wane ne a cikin me yawa

Ana ɗaukar kasar Sin a matsayin babbar barazana ga ma'auni mai laushi a cikin masana'antar semiconductor na duniya. Su ne na farko da suka yanke shawarar "je yaƙi" don 'yancin kai. Sun fi kowa alkawarin zuba kudi a wannan sana’ar. Misali, a cikin 2014, gwamnatin daular Celestial ta buga "Shawarwari don Ci gaban Masana'antar Haɗin Kai ta Ƙasa", wanda ke kira da a saka hannun jari aƙalla dala biliyan 150 don haɓaka samar da semiconductor na gida. Kuma tuni a shekarar 2020, ma'aikatar masana'antu ta kasar Sin ta sanar da shirin zuba jarin akalla dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.4 a cikin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zamani na kasar nan da shekaru 5. Bisa ra'ayin jam'iyya mai mulki, a shekarar 2025 ya kamata a samar da akalla kashi 70 cikin 100 na kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin kasar.

{Asar Amirka a al'adance tana aiki a matsayin babban abokin adawar mafi girman zalunci. A cikin 2017, Majalisar Masu Ba da Shawarar Kimiyya da Fasaha ta Amurka ta fitar da rahoto, "Tabbatar da Jagorancin Dogon Amurka a cikin Semiconductor," yana bayyana hangen nesa ga gasa na Amurka a cikin masana'antu. Takardar ta ƙunshi maki da yawa, waɗanda suka haɗa da saka hannun jari a R&D, yaƙi da leƙen asirin masana'antu, ƙirƙirar masana'antar semiconductor, da ƙari. Tuni a lokacin bazara na 2020, a ƙarƙashin Trump, an haɗa wani fasalin shirin a cikin Dokar Hukumar Tsaro ta ƙasa (NDAA). Musamman ma, ya tanadi tallafin dala biliyan 15 don jawo hankalin masana'antun masana'antu na semiconductor zuwa kasar, kamar yadda ya kasance daga baya, TSMC. Za a ware wani dala biliyan 12 don nazarin semiconductor da kansu. Kadan fiye da dala biliyan 1 yana cikin R&D. Sabon shugaban kasa Joe Biden a cikin Maris 2021 ya yi barazanar tallafawa masana'antar semiconductor na cikin gida da dala biliyan 50.

Kwanan nan, Turai sau da yawa ta koma baya daga kutsen IT na abokan hulɗarta na Yamma. Ana iya ganin wannan aƙalla a cikin tsauraran maganganu na rashin amincewa da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta kwanan nan a kan babban IT-hudu na Amurka. Komawa a cikin Mayu 2013, Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta sanar da dabarun EU don haɓaka micro- da nanoelectronics. Takardar ta yi kira da a saka hannun jari a bangaren tattalin arzikin da aka kebe na akalla Yuro biliyan 35 (ko dala biliyan 41) nan da shekarar 2025. A cikin 2018, EU ta faɗaɗa shirinta. Ya ƙara irin waɗannan abubuwa kamar ƙirƙirar ikon mallaka na dabaru, jawo ƙarin kuɗi, ƙirƙirar hanya daga mallakar fasaha zuwa samfura, da ƙari. Tuni a karshen shekarar 2020, kasashe 17 na EU suka rattaba hannu kan wata sanarwa inda suka dauki alkawarin zuba jarin da ya kai Yuro biliyan 145 a masana'antar tare da kashe su, musamman wajen samar da na'urori masu sarrafawa har zuwa 2 nm.

Da alama an dade ana ganin Rasha ba ta damu da halin da ake ciki na lantarki ba, muddin dai ya biya bukatun sojojin. Duk da haka, a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata ko fiye, gwamnati tana sannu a hankali, ba ta da kwarin gwiwa, amma har yanzu tana ninkaya don samun yancin kai. Misali, a cikin Janairu 2020, Rasha ta amince da dabarun bunkasa masana'antar lantarki har zuwa 2030. Babban abin da ya sa a gaba, ba shakka, shi ne kara yawan kason kayan aikin cikin gida a cikin kasar, saboda dalilai na tsaron kasa, da kuma samar da gasa da kuma daidaita kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje. Tabbas, shirin kuma yana shafar masana'antar semiconductor. Gwamnati na fatan cewa ta hanyar 2030 masana'antu za su bayyana a cikin Tarayyar Rasha don ƙirƙirar microcircuits tare da "kauri" daga 65 zuwa 7 har ma da 5 nm. Kyawawan kishi, an ba da cewa tsarin fasaha na yanzu don samar da gida shine 130 nm. A daya hannun, Baikal Electronics ya dade da ƙware 28 nm, amma oda yin gyare-gyare a Taiwan. Ga komai game da komai har zuwa 2024, gwamnati na shirin ware kusan rubles biliyan 266 (ko dala biliyan 4.4 a farashin canji na Janairu Babur 2011 Black 2020).

Kayan alatu mai ban sha'awa

Hanyar waɗannan iko a bayyane take: don dogaro da kai. Duk da haka, alal misali, Steven Ezell, mataimakin shugaban Cibiyar Harkokin Watsa Labarai da Innovation Foundation (ITIF) na manufofin kirkire-kirkire na duniya, bisa la'akari da yawancin bincike, yana jayayya cewa irin wannan burin shine utopian. Saboda dalilai da dama.

A farkon farawa, haɓaka masana'antar ku yanzu yana da matuƙar tsada har ma ga ƙasa mafi arziki. Kuma gobe za ta yi tsada. Kuma wannan ba ƙari ba ne na waƙa, amma gaskiya ne. Kudin samarwa saboda karuwar gasa da buƙatun ƙirƙira yana haɓaka a zahiri kowace rana.

A cikin 2017, TSMC ya yi alkawarin gina masana'antar sarrafa 3nm a Taiwan kan farashin dala biliyan 20. A cikin 2019, wannan kamfani ya sanar da shirin gina masana'antar 5nm na dala biliyan 12 a Arizona shekaru, kuma hasashen farashin ya canza sosai. A cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA) a cikin 2020, an kiyasta matsakaicin kuɗin da aka kashe na 14-16 nm a dala biliyan 13, 10 nm - $ 15 biliyan, 7 nm - $ 18 biliyan, 5 nm - $ 20. A wannan yanayin. Ginin masana'antar kanta yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi tsadar abubuwan masana'antar.

Wani abu mai mahimmanci kuma mara arha shine R&D, wani abu wanda babu wanda masana'antu ba zasu yi aiki ba. Zuba jari a cikin binciken na'urorin lantarki kuma yana haɓaka cikin saurin fushi. Trite saboda kowace shekara ana buƙatar ƙarin sabbin abubuwa. Don bayyanawa, a cewar SIA/ITIF, ana buƙatar ƙarin bincike sau 18 don kiyaye Dokar Moore a cikin 2020 fiye da na 70s. Wani lamari mai ban sha'awa yana taimakawa wajen yin tunanin ma'auni na zuba jari a R & D: yawan bincike da ci gaba a fagen semiconductor shine na biyu kawai ga girman irin wannan aikin a cikin magunguna.

Matsayin manyan masana'antun semiconductor na duniya a cikin 2020. IC Insight

A cikin 2020, Intel ya yarda cewa shekara guda bayan shirye-shiryen haɓaka na'ura mai sarrafa 7nm. A lokaci guda, Intel, duk da rikicin, yana ci gaba da kasancewa babban mai siyar da samfuran semiconductor a duniya. Lag din bai kasance saboda gaskiyar cewa Intel ba zato ba tsammani ya manta yadda ake yin na'urori masu sarrafawa. Samun ƙididdigewa hanya ce mai matuƙar wahala da tsada.

Sannan kuma, yin na’ura mai sarrafa kwamfuta wani bangare ne na matsalar. Har yanzu yana buƙatar siyarwa. Kuma don sayarwa gwargwadon yiwuwa. Samar da guntu wani tsari ne tare da babban matakin raguwa. Manyan dillalai kamar Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Micron, da SK Hynix sun kasance suna kashe wani kaso mai tsoka na siyar da kayan aikin tsara na yanzu akan na'urori masu sarrafawa na gaba tsawon shekaru. Ba za a sami masu sarrafa 5nm ba tare da tallace-tallacen 7nm ba. In ba haka ba, wannan masana'antar ba ta aiki kawai - tattalin arzikin zai ruguje.

Bisa ga wannan, Stephen Ezell ya kammala da cewa da wuya kowace ƙasa ita kaɗai za ta iya jurewa ƙarar farashi, sarƙaƙƙiya da sikelin da ake buƙata don ƙirƙira da samar da kayan aikin semiconductor.

Tare da duniya

Sai dai ba kudi ne kawai matsalar da kasar da ke da burin dogaro da kanta za ta magance ba. Masana'antar semiconductor tana da mafi hadaddun sarkar darajar tarwatsewar yanki na kowace masana'antu. Ƙirƙirar kwakwalwan kwamfuta ya haɗa da matakai masu yawa. Kamfanoni daga kasashe daban-daban sun sami ci gaba a cikin matakai daban-daban. Sabili da haka, don adana kuɗi da kuma cimma mafi kyawun inganci, masu siyarwa suna shirye don jigilar kayan su a duniya har sai sun kasance shuɗi a fuska. Haka abin ya faru a tarihi. Wannan ita ce kawai hanyar da masana'antu ke aiki a yanzu.

Anan, kuma, akwai misalin da ba na almara ba. Ana hakar siliki a China. A Japan, ana yanka ingots zuwa faranti marasa rufi. A cikin Amurka, ana juya su zuwa ma'auni na masana'anta tare da haɗaɗɗen da'irori masu aiki. Bayan haka, ana aika samfurin da aka kammala zuwa Vietnam ko Malaysia don haɗuwa, gwaji da marufi (ATP). Abubuwan da aka gyara suna tafiya ko tafiya zuwa China, Koriya ta Kudu da Amurka don haɗa su cikin samfuran ƙarshe. Kuma bayan haka ne, kwamfutar hannu, wayoyin hannu da kwamfyutocin tafi-da-gidanka suna yawo a duniya.

Kuma wannan shine mafi sauƙaƙan algorithm. A haƙiƙa, kamfanoni daga ƙasashe kusan 25 ne ke da hannu wajen samar da na'urar na'ura mai kwakwalwa. Daga hakowa zuwa siyarwa, kayan da ke cikin na'urar da aka gama ta ke haye kan iyakokin duniya matsakaicin sau 70. Gabaɗaya, sufuri kaɗai na iya ɗaukar kwanaki 100 ko fiye.

Logistics a cikin masana'antar semiconductor tsari ne mai kyau. Ba zai yuwu a yi tunanin cewa wata kasa daga cikin kasashen za ta iya dauka tare da kawar da kansu cikin rashin sanin ya kamata ba tare da lalata tattalin arzikin kasar ba.

Shin yana aiki? Kar ku taɓa!

Fara samar da na'urori masu zaman kansu a wata ƙasa ko wata ƙasa yana da tsada da wahala. Kuma ba shi da ma'ana. Kamar yadda na lura a sama, juyin halittar na'urori masu sarrafawa ya dogara sosai kan siyar da abubuwan tsararru na yanzu. Manazarta a Intel ko TSMC suna yin ƙididdige ƙididdiga masu ban mamaki don yin lissafin haɗari kuma suna ware ƙarin kuɗi ga R&D da haɓaka masana'anta fiye da waɗanda aka ware a ƙarshe. Idan kowanne daga cikin manyan masu karfin yana da na'urorin sarrafa kansa, kasuwar tallace-tallace za ta ragu. Samfuran zai zama mara amfani ga kowa da kowa. Zuba jari a cikin bincike zai ragu. Ci gaba zai ragu.

Kamar duk abin da aka rubuta a sama, ba almara ba ne. Daya daga cikin shugabannin TSMC, Mark Liu, ya bayyana cewa Amurka da Turai ba sa bukatar kafuwar nasu a watan Afrilu. Ƙirƙirar sarƙoƙin ƙima a cikin Amurka da EU zai haifar da adadi mai yawa na "ikon da ba shi da fa'ida", in ji shi.

Eh, ƙarancin halin yanzu ba shine mafi kyawun yanayi ga masu samarwa da masu amfani ba. Koyaya, wannan ƙarancin ya yi nisa da na farko a masana'antar. Alal misali, a cikin 2017-2018, kowa da kowa ya rasa DRAM, flash memory modules, microcontrollers, da sauransu. Duk da haka, babu wanda ya fara gina sababbin masana'antu - masana'antu sun warware matsalolinta ba tare da tsangwama daga 'yan siyasa ba. Zai yanke hukunci yanzu.

A cewar Mark Liu iri ɗaya, ƙarancin da ake fama da shi a halin yanzu shine sakamakon ƙarin booking da abubuwa biyu suka haifar. Da farko, dillalai da yawa sun garzaya don maye gurbin Huawei lokacin da Amurka ta ba da umarnin a raba kamfanin na China da kamfanin Taiwan. Na biyu, dillalai sun garzaya don yin odar abubuwan da za a yi a nan gaba saboda cutar ta COVID-19, suna tsoron yuwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki (wanda, kamar yadda kuke gani a yau, bai faru ba). Sakamakon haka, nauyin da ke kan layin ya ninka sau biyu idan aka kwatanta da yadda aka saba.

A lokaci guda kuma, a cewar shugaban TSMC, ainihin ƙarfin da kamfani ke da shi ya isa ya gamsar da buƙatun da aka saba yi na chips tare da ajiya. Kuma wannan bukata ta al'ada tabbas zata dawo shekara mai zuwa. Abin da kawai ke tabbatar da rashin amfanin gina ƙarin masana'antu don samun kuɗi masu yawa, ba a Amurka ba, ko a China, ko a cikin EU, ko a Rasha.

Kuma eh, da an fara wannan labarin gabaɗayan kuma an gama shi da sauri. Dole ne kawai mutum ya bayyana utopianism na ra'ayin masana'antar semiconductor mai cin gashin kansa ta amfani da misalin Japan. A cikin 80-90s, akwai daidaito tsakanin Amurka da Japan a cikin kasuwar masana'antar semiconductor: sun raba wannan masana'antar kusan rabin. Koyaya, a cikin rabin na biyu na 90s da farkon 00s, ra'ayoyin game da makomar waɗannan ƙasashe sun fara bambanta.

{Asar Amirka ta zaɓi hanyar ba da izini da samarwa ba tare da yin simintin gyaran kafa ba, yayin da Japan, akasin haka, ta yanke shawarar mayar da wani muhimmin sashi na hanyoyin haɗin ƙima a ƙasarta. Don haka, a yau masana'antar semiconductor ta Japan tana raguwa. Ƙasar Rising Sun ba ta wuce kashi 10% na kasuwa ba. Ganin cewa rabon Amurka kusan bai ragu ba tun lokacin.

Labulen Silicon: Me yasa Rasha Bata Bukatar 'Yancin Semiconductor

An sanya karancin microelectronics akan yakin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China. Mafi ƙarfi na wannan duniyar ba zato ba tsammani ya gane cewa kasancewar a cikin ƙasa na masana'antar masana'antar ta semiconductor yana da sanyi. Hakika, tare da masana'anta, kamar, alal misali, TSMC, kasar za ta tabbatar da ba kawai tsaron kasa ba, har ma da tattalin arziki shekaru da yawa masu zuwa.

Hakazalika, manajoji daga kasashe daban-daban sun fahimci mahimmancin 'yancin kai na silicon ba jiya ba, amma sun fara aiki tare da yin magana mai ƙarfi game da wannan batu kwanan nan. China, Amurka, Tarayyar Turai, Rasha ... Kowa yana son samun cikakken 'yancin kai na silicon.

Amma, manazarta, masana tattalin arziki da ma masana'antun sarrafa kayan masarufi kamar TSMC da kansu sun yi la'akari da shirin gina masana'antar semiconductor har ma a cikin Amurka da Turai, a sanya shi a hankali, wani aiki mai ban sha'awa. Kuma akwai kyawawan dalilai da yawa akan hakan. An fara daga tsadar tsadar ƴancin kai da ƙarewa tare da tsawan lokaci mai tsawo a masana'antar da kowa ke samar da komai.

Gabaɗaya, zan yi ƙoƙarin kada in zama mai ban sha'awa, amma ba ma son kai ba, in faɗi dalilin da yasa a zahiri ba Rasha, ko Amurka, ko wata ƙasa ba ta buƙatar masana'antu kamar TSMC. Bari mu fara, kamar yadda aka saba, daga farko. Wato, daga tsare-tsaren yankuna daban-daban don bunkasa masana'antar semiconductor.

Wane ne a cikin me yawa

Ana ɗaukar kasar Sin a matsayin babbar barazana ga ma'auni mai laushi a cikin masana'antar semiconductor na duniya. Su ne na farko da suka yanke shawarar "je yaƙi" don 'yancin kai. Sun fi kowa alkawarin zuba kudi a wannan sana’ar. Misali, a cikin 2014, gwamnatin daular Celestial ta buga "Shawarwari don Ci gaban Masana'antar Haɗin Kai ta Ƙasa", wanda ke kira da a saka hannun jari aƙalla dala biliyan 150 don haɓaka samar da semiconductor na gida. Kuma tuni a shekarar 2020, ma'aikatar masana'antu ta kasar Sin ta sanar da shirin zuba jarin akalla dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.4 a cikin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zamani na kasar nan da shekaru 5. Bisa ra'ayin jam'iyya mai mulki, a shekarar 2025 ya kamata a samar da akalla kashi 70 cikin 100 na kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin kasar.

{Asar Amirka a al'adance tana aiki a matsayin babban abokin adawar mafi girman zalunci. A cikin 2017, Majalisar Masu Ba da Shawarar Kimiyya da Fasaha ta Amurka ta fitar da rahoto, "Tabbatar da Jagorancin Dogon Amurka a cikin Semiconductor," yana bayyana hangen nesa ga gasa na Amurka a cikin masana'antu. Takardar ta ƙunshi maki da yawa, waɗanda suka haɗa da saka hannun jari a R&D, yaƙi da leƙen asirin masana'antu, ƙirƙirar masana'antar semiconductor, da ƙari. Tuni a lokacin bazara na 2020, a ƙarƙashin Trump, an haɗa wani fasalin shirin a cikin Dokar Hukumar Tsaro ta ƙasa (NDAA). Musamman ma, ya tanadi tallafin dala biliyan 15 don jawo hankalin masana'antun masana'antu na semiconductor zuwa kasar, kamar yadda ya kasance daga baya, TSMC. Za a ware wani dala biliyan 12 don nazarin semiconductor da kansu. Kadan fiye da dala biliyan 1 yana cikin R&D. Sabon shugaban kasa Joe Biden a cikin Maris 2021 ya yi barazanar tallafawa masana'antar semiconductor na cikin gida da dala biliyan 50.

Kwanan nan, Turai sau da yawa ta koma baya daga kutsen IT na abokan hulɗarta na Yamma. Ana iya ganin wannan aƙalla a cikin tsauraran maganganu na rashin amincewa da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta kwanan nan a kan babban IT-hudu na Amurka. Komawa a cikin Mayu 2013, Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta sanar da dabarun EU don haɓaka micro- da nanoelectronics. Takardar ta yi kira da a saka hannun jari a bangaren tattalin arzikin da aka kebe na akalla Yuro biliyan 35 (ko dala biliyan 41) nan da shekarar 2025. A cikin 2018, EU ta faɗaɗa shirinta. Ya ƙara irin waɗannan abubuwa kamar ƙirƙirar ikon mallaka na dabaru, jawo ƙarin kuɗi, ƙirƙirar hanya daga mallakar fasaha zuwa samfura, da ƙari. Tuni a karshen shekarar 2020, kasashe 17 na EU suka rattaba hannu kan wata sanarwa inda suka dauki alkawarin zuba jarin da ya kai Yuro biliyan 145 a masana'antar tare da kashe su, musamman wajen samar da na'urori masu sarrafawa har zuwa 2 nm.

Da alama an dade ana ganin Rasha ba ta damu da halin da ake ciki na lantarki ba, muddin dai ya biya bukatun sojojin. Duk da haka, a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata ko fiye, gwamnati tana sannu a hankali, ba ta da kwarin gwiwa, amma har yanzu tana ninkaya don samun yancin kai. Misali, a cikin Janairu 2020, Rasha ta amince da dabarun bunkasa masana'antar lantarki har zuwa 2030. Babban abin da ya sa a gaba, ba shakka, shi ne kara yawan kason kayan aikin cikin gida a cikin kasar, saboda dalilai na tsaron kasa, da kuma samar da gasa da kuma daidaita kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje. Tabbas, shirin kuma yana shafar masana'antar semiconductor. Gwamnati na fatan cewa ta hanyar 2030 masana'antu za su bayyana a cikin Tarayyar Rasha don ƙirƙirar microcircuits tare da "kauri" daga 65 zuwa 7 har ma da 5 nm. Kyawawan kishi, la'akari da cewa tsarin fasaha na yanzu don samar da gida shine 130 nm. A daya hannun, Baikal Electronics ya dade da ƙware 28 nm, amma oda yin gyare-gyare a Taiwan. Ga komai game da komai har zuwa 2024, gwamnati na shirin ware kusan rubles biliyan 266 (ko dala biliyan 4.4 a farashin canji na Janairu Babur 2011 Black 2020).

Kayan alatu mai ban sha'awa

Hanyar waɗannan iko a bayyane take: don dogaro da kai. Duk da haka, alal misali, Steven Ezell, mataimakin shugaban Cibiyar Harkokin Watsa Labarai da Innovation Foundation (ITIF) na manufofin kirkire-kirkire na duniya, bisa la'akari da yawancin bincike, yana jayayya cewa irin wannan burin shine utopian. Saboda dalilai da dama.

A farkon farawa, haɓaka masana'antar ku yanzu yana da matuƙar tsada har ma ga ƙasa mafi arziki. Kuma gobe za ta yi tsada. Kuma wannan ba ƙari ba ne na waƙa, amma gaskiya ne. Kudin samarwa saboda karuwar gasa da buƙatun ƙirƙira yana haɓaka a zahiri kowace rana.

A cikin 2017, TSMC ya yi alkawarin gina masana'antar sarrafa 3nm a Taiwan kan farashin dala biliyan 20. A cikin 2019, wannan kamfani ya sanar da shirin gina masana'antar 5nm na dala biliyan 12 a Arizona shekaru, kuma hasashen farashin ya canza sosai. A cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA) a cikin 2020, an kiyasta matsakaicin kuɗin da aka kashe na 14-16 nm a dala biliyan 13, 10 nm - $ 15 biliyan, 7 nm - $ 18 biliyan, 5 nm - $ 20. A wannan yanayin. Ginin masana'antar kanta yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi tsadar abubuwan masana'antar.

Wani abu mai mahimmanci kuma mara arha shine R&D, wani abu wanda babu wanda masana'antu ba zasu yi aiki ba. Zuba jari a cikin binciken na'urorin lantarki kuma yana haɓaka cikin saurin fushi. Trite saboda kowace shekara ana buƙatar ƙarin sabbin abubuwa. Don bayyanawa, a cewar SIA/ITIF, ana buƙatar ƙarin bincike sau 18 don kiyaye Dokar Moore a cikin 2020 fiye da na 70s. Wani lamari mai ban sha'awa yana taimakawa wajen yin tunanin ma'auni na zuba jari a R & D: yawan bincike da ci gaba a fagen semiconductor shine na biyu kawai ga girman irin wannan aikin a cikin magunguna.

Matsayin manyan masana'antun semiconductor na duniya a cikin 2020. IC Insight

A cikin 2020, Intel ya yarda cewa shekara guda bayan shirye-shiryen haɓaka na'ura mai sarrafa 7nm. A lokaci guda, Intel, duk da rikicin, yana ci gaba da kasancewa babban mai siyar da samfuran semiconductor a duniya. Lag din bai kasance saboda gaskiyar cewa Intel ba zato ba tsammani ya manta yadda ake yin na'urori masu sarrafawa. Samun ƙididdigewa hanya ce mai matuƙar wahala da tsada.

Sannan kuma, yin na’ura mai sarrafa kwamfuta wani bangare ne na matsalar. Har yanzu yana buƙatar siyarwa. Kuma don sayarwa gwargwadon yiwuwa. Masana'antar guntu wani tsari ne tare da babban matakin raguwa. Manyan dillalai kamar Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Micron, da SK Hynix sun kwashe shekaru suna gina na'urori masu sarrafawa na gaba don wani yanki mai mahimmanci na tallace-tallacen sassan zamani. Ba za a sami masu sarrafa 5nm ba tare da tallace-tallacen 7nm ba. In ba haka ba, wannan masana'antar ba ta aiki kawai - tattalin arzikin zai ruguje.

Bisa ga wannan, Stephen Ezell ya kammala da cewa da wuya kowace ƙasa ita kaɗai za ta iya jurewa ƙarar farashi, sarƙaƙƙiya da sikelin da ake buƙata don ƙirƙira da samar da kayan aikin semiconductor.

Tare da duniya

Sai dai ba kudi ne kawai matsalar da kasar da ke da burin dogaro da kanta za ta magance ba. Masana'antar semiconductor tana da mafi hadaddun sarkar darajar tarwatsewar yanki na kowace masana'antu. Ƙirƙirar kwakwalwan kwamfuta ya haɗa da matakai masu yawa. Kamfanoni daga kasashe daban-daban sun sami ci gaba a cikin matakai daban-daban. Sabili da haka, don adana kuɗi da kuma cimma mafi kyawun inganci, masu siyarwa suna shirye don jigilar kayan su a duniya har sai sun kasance shuɗi a fuska. Haka abin ya faru a tarihi. Wannan ita ce kawai hanyar da masana'antu ke aiki a yanzu.

Anan, kuma, akwai misalin da ba na almara ba. Ana hakar siliki a China. A Japan, ana yanka ingots zuwa faranti marasa rufi. A cikin Amurka, ana juya su zuwa ma'auni na masana'anta tare da haɗaɗɗen da'irori masu aiki. Bayan haka, ana aika samfurin da aka kammala zuwa Vietnam ko Malaysia don haɗuwa, gwaji da marufi (ATP). Abubuwan da aka gyara suna tafiya ko tafiya zuwa China, Koriya ta Kudu da Amurka don haɗa su cikin samfuran ƙarshe. Kuma bayan haka ne, kwamfutar hannu, wayoyin hannu da kwamfyutocin tafi-da-gidanka suna yawo a duniya.

Kuma wannan shine mafi sauƙaƙan algorithm. A haƙiƙa, kamfanoni daga ƙasashe kusan 25 ne ke da hannu wajen samar da na'urar na'ura mai kwakwalwa. Daga hakowa zuwa siyarwa, kayan da ke cikin na'urar da aka gama ta ke haye kan iyakokin duniya matsakaicin sau 70. Gabaɗaya, sufuri kaɗai na iya ɗaukar kwanaki 100 ko fiye.

Logistics a cikin masana'antar semiconductor tsari ne mai kyau. Ba zai yuwu a yi tunanin cewa wata kasa daga cikin kasashen za ta iya dauka tare da kawar da kansu cikin rashin sanin ya kamata ba tare da lalata tattalin arzikin kasar ba.

Shin yana aiki? Kar ku taɓa!

Fara samar da na'urori masu zaman kansu a wata ƙasa ko wata ƙasa yana da tsada da wahala. Kuma ba shi da ma'ana. Kamar yadda na lura a sama, juyin halittar na'urori masu sarrafawa ya dogara sosai kan siyar da abubuwan tsararru na yanzu. Manazarta a Intel ko TSMC suna yin ƙididdige ƙididdiga masu ban mamaki don yin lissafin haɗari kuma suna ware ƙarin kuɗi ga R&D da haɓaka masana'anta fiye da waɗanda aka ware a ƙarshe. Idan kowanne daga cikin manyan masu karfin yana da na'urorin sarrafa kansa, kasuwar tallace-tallace za ta ragu. Samfuran zai zama mara amfani ga kowa da kowa. Zuba jari a cikin bincike zai ragu. Ci gaba zai ragu.

Kamar duk abin da aka rubuta a sama, ba almara ba ne. Daya daga cikin shugabannin TSMC, Mark Liu, ya bayyana cewa Amurka da Turai ba sa bukatar kafuwar nasu a watan Afrilu. Ƙirƙirar sarƙoƙin ƙima a cikin Amurka da EU zai haifar da adadi mai yawa na "ikon da ba shi da fa'ida", in ji shi.

Eh, ƙarancin halin yanzu ba shine mafi kyawun yanayi ga masu samarwa da masu amfani ba. Koyaya, wannan ƙarancin ya yi nisa da na farko a masana'antar. Alal misali, a cikin 2017-2018, kowa da kowa ya rasa DRAM, flash memory modules, microcontrollers, da sauransu. Duk da haka, babu wanda ya fara gina sababbin masana'antu - masana'antu sun warware matsalolinta ba tare da tsangwama daga 'yan siyasa ba. Zai yanke hukunci yanzu.

{Asar Amirka ta zaɓi hanyar ba da izini da samarwa ba tare da yin simintin gyaran kafa ba, yayin da Japan, akasin haka, ta yanke shawarar mayar da wani muhimmin sashi na hanyoyin haɗin ƙima a ƙasarta. Don haka, a yau masana'antar semiconductor ta Japan tana raguwa. Rabon Ƙasar Rising Sun bai wuce kashi 10% na kasuwa ba. Ganin cewa rabon Amurka kusan bai ragu ba tun lokacin.

Labulen Silicon: Me yasa Rasha Bata Bukatar 'Yancin Semiconductor

An sanya karancin microelectronics akan yakin kasuwanci tsakanin Amurka da China. Mafi ƙarfi na wannan duniyar ba zato ba tsammani ya gane cewa samun nasu masana'antar semiconductor a cikin ƙasa yana da kyau. Bayan haka, tare da masana'anta, kamar, alal misali, TSMC, kasar za ta tabbatar da ba kawai tsaron kasa ba, har ma da kyautata tattalin arziki shekaru da yawa masu zuwa.

Hakazalika, manajojin kasashe daban-daban sun fahimci mahimmancin 'yancin kai na silicon ba jiya ba, amma sun fara aiki tare da yin magana mai ƙarfi game da wannan batu kwanan nan. China, Amurka, EU, Rasha… Kowa yana son cimma cikakken 'yancin kai na silicon.

Amma, manazarta, masana tattalin arziki da ma masana'antun sarrafa kayan masarufi kamar TSMC da kansu sun yi la'akari da shirin gina masana'antar semiconductor har ma a cikin Amurka da Turai, a sanya shi a hankali, wani aiki mai ban sha'awa. Kuma akwai kyawawan dalilai da yawa akan hakan. An fara daga tsadar tsadar ƴancin kai da ƙarewa tare da tsawan lokaci mai tsawo a masana'antar da kowa ke samar da komai.

Gabaɗaya, zan yi ƙoƙarin kada in zama mai ban sha'awa, amma ba ma son kai ba, in faɗi dalilin da yasa a zahiri ba Rasha, ko Amurka, ko wata ƙasa ba ta buƙatar masana'antu kamar TSMC. Bari mu fara, kamar yadda aka saba, daga farko. Wato, daga tsare-tsaren yankuna daban-daban don bunkasa masana'antar semiconductor.

Wane ne a cikin me yawa

Ana ɗaukar kasar Sin a matsayin babbar barazana ga ma'auni mai laushi a cikin masana'antar semiconductor na duniya. Su ne na farko da suka yanke shawarar "je yaƙi" don 'yancin kai. Sun fi kowa alkawarin zuba kudi a wannan sana’ar. Misali, a cikin 2014, gwamnatin daular Celestial ta buga "Shawarwari don Ci gaban Masana'antar Haɗin Kai ta Ƙasa", wanda ke kira da a saka hannun jari aƙalla dala biliyan 150 don haɓaka samar da semiconductor na gida. Kuma tuni a shekarar 2020, ma'aikatar masana'antu ta kasar Sin ta sanar da shirin zuba jarin akalla dalar Amurka tiriliyan 1.4 a cikin kayayyakin more rayuwa na zamani na kasar nan da shekaru 5. Bisa ra'ayin jam'iyya mai mulki, a shekarar 2025 ya kamata a samar da akalla kashi 70 cikin 100 na kwakwalwan kwamfuta a cikin kasar.

{Asar Amirka a al'adance tana aiki a matsayin babban abokin adawar mafi girman zalunci. A cikin 2017, Majalisar Masu Ba da Shawarar Kimiyya da Fasaha ta Amurka ta fitar da rahoto, "Tabbatar da Jagorancin Dogon Amurka a cikin Semiconductor," yana bayyana hangen nesa ga gasa na Amurka a cikin masana'antu. Takardar ta ƙunshi maki da yawa, waɗanda suka haɗa da saka hannun jari a R&D, yaƙi da leƙen asirin masana'antu, ƙirƙirar masana'antar semiconductor, da ƙari. Tuni a lokacin bazara na 2020, a ƙarƙashin Trump, an haɗa wani fasalin shirin a cikin Dokar Hukumar Tsaro ta ƙasa (NDAA). Musamman ma, ya tanadi tallafin dala biliyan 15 don jawo hankalin masana'antun masana'antu na semiconductor zuwa kasar, kamar yadda ya kasance daga baya, TSMC. Za a ware wani dala biliyan 12 don nazarin semiconductor da kansu. Kadan fiye da dala biliyan 1 yana cikin R&D. Sabon shugaban kasa Joe Biden a cikin Maris 2021 ya yi barazanar tallafawa masana'antar semiconductor na cikin gida da dala biliyan 50.

Kwanan nan, Turai sau da yawa ta koma baya daga kutsen IT na abokan hulɗarta na Yamma. Ana iya ganin wannan aƙalla a cikin tsauraran maganganu na rashin amincewa da Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta kwanan nan a kan babban IT-hudu na Amurka. Komawa a cikin Mayu 2013, Hukumar Tarayyar Turai ta sanar da dabarun EU don haɓaka micro- da nanoelectronics. Takardar ta yi kira da a saka hannun jari a bangaren tattalin arzikin da aka kebe na akalla Yuro biliyan 35 (ko dala biliyan 41) nan da shekarar 2025. A cikin 2018, EU ta faɗaɗa shirinta. Ya ƙara irin waɗannan abubuwa kamar ƙirƙirar ikon mallaka na dabaru, jawo ƙarin kuɗi, ƙirƙirar hanya daga mallakar fasaha zuwa samfura, da ƙari. Tuni a karshen shekarar 2020, kasashe 17 na EU suka rattaba hannu kan wata sanarwa inda suka dauki alkawarin zuba jarin da ya kai Yuro biliyan 145 a masana'antar tare da kashe su, musamman wajen samar da na'urori masu sarrafawa har zuwa 2 nm.

Da alama an dade ana ganin Rasha ba ta damu da halin da ake ciki na lantarki ba, muddin dai ya biya bukatun sojojin. Duk da haka, a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata ko fiye, gwamnati tana sannu a hankali, ba ta da kwarin gwiwa, amma har yanzu tana ninkaya don samun yancin kai. Misali, a cikin Janairu 2020, Rasha ta amince da dabarun bunkasa masana'antar lantarki har zuwa 2030. Babban abin da ya sa a gaba, ba shakka, shi ne kara yawan kason kayan aikin cikin gida a cikin kasar, saboda dalilai na tsaron kasa, da kuma samar da gasa da kuma daidaita kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje. Tabbas, shirin kuma yana shafar masana'antar semiconductor. Gwamnati na fatan cewa ta hanyar 2030 masana'antu za su bayyana a cikin Tarayyar Rasha don ƙirƙirar microcircuits tare da "kauri" daga 65 zuwa 7 har ma da 5 nm. Kyawawan kishi, an ba da cewa tsarin fasaha na yanzu don samar da gida shine 130 nm. A daya hannun, Baikal Electronics ya dade da ƙware 28 nm, amma oda yin gyare-gyare a Taiwan. Don komai game da komai har zuwa 2024, gwamnati tana shirin ware kusan 266 rubles (ko $ 4.4 biliyan a farashin canjin Babur Janairu 2011 Black 2020).

Rasha, ga alama, na dogon lokaci kamar ta damu da halin da ake ciki na lantarki na cikin gida, idan dai ya dace da bukatun sojojin. Duk da haka, a cikin shekaru biyar da suka gabata ko fiye, gwamnati tana sannu a hankali, ba ta da kwarin gwiwa, amma har yanzu tana ninkaya don samun yancin kai. Misali, a cikin Janairu 2020, Rasha ta amince da dabarun bunkasa masana'antar lantarki har zuwa 2030. Babban abin da ya sa a gaba, ba shakka, shi ne kara yawan kason kayan aikin cikin gida a cikin kasar, saboda dalilai na tsaron kasa, da kuma samar da gasa da kuma daidaita kayayyakin da ake fitarwa zuwa kasashen waje. Tabbas, shirin kuma yana shafar masana'antar semiconductor. Gwamnati na fatan cewa ta hanyar 2030 masana'antu za su bayyana a cikin Tarayyar Rasha don ƙirƙirar microcircuits tare da "kauri" daga 65 zuwa 7 har ma da 5 nm. Kyawawan kishi, an ba da cewa tsarin fasaha na yanzu don samar da gida shine 130 nm. A daya hannun, Baikal Electronics ya dade da ƙware 28 nm, amma oda yin gyare-gyare a Taiwan. Don komai game da komai har zuwa 2024, gwamnati tana shirin ware kusan biliyan 266 rubles (ko dala biliyan 4.4 a farashin canji na Janairu. Babur 2011 Black Babur 2011 Black 2020).

Kayan alatu mai ban sha'awa

Hanyar waɗannan iko a bayyane take: don dogaro da kai. Duk da haka, alal misali, Steven Ezell, mataimakin shugaban Cibiyar Harkokin Watsa Labarai da Innovation Foundation (ITIF) na manufofin kirkire-kirkire na duniya, bisa la'akari da yawancin bincike, yana jayayya cewa irin wannan burin shine utopian. Saboda dalilai da dama.

A farkon farawa, haɓaka masana'antar ku yanzu yana da matuƙar tsada har ma ga ƙasa mafi arziki. Kuma gobe za ta yi tsada. Kuma wannan ba ƙari ba ne na waƙa, amma gaskiya ne. Kudin samarwa saboda karuwar gasa da buƙatun ƙirƙira yana haɓaka a zahiri kowace rana.

A shekarar 2017, kamfanin TSMC ya yi alkawarin gina masana’antar sarrafa kayan masarufi mai karfin 3 nm a kasar Taiwan kan kudi dalar Amurka biliyan 20. A shekarar 2019, wannan kamfani ya bayyana shirin gina wata masana’anta mai karfin nm 5 a Arizona kan kudi dala biliyan 12. shekaru, kuma Hasashen farashi yana canzawa sosai. A cewar Ƙungiyar Masana'antu ta Semiconductor (SIA) a cikin 2020, an kiyasta matsakaicin kuɗin da aka kashe na 14-16 nm a dala biliyan 13, 10 nm - $ 15 biliyan, 7 nm - $ 18 biliyan, 5 nm - $ 20. A wannan yanayin. Ginin masana'antar kanta yana ɗaya daga cikin mafi tsadar abubuwan masana'antar.

Wani abu mai mahimmanci kuma mara arha shine R&D, wani abu wanda babu wanda masana'antu ba zasu yi aiki ba. Zuba jari a cikin binciken na'urorin lantarki kuma yana haɓaka cikin saurin fushi. Trite saboda kowace shekara ana buƙatar ƙarin sabbin abubuwa. Don bayyanawa, a cewar SIA/ITIF, ana buƙatar ƙarin bincike sau 18 don kiyaye Dokar Moore a cikin 2020 fiye da na 70s. Wani lamari mai ban sha'awa yana taimakawa wajen yin tunanin ma'auni na zuba jari a R & D: yawan bincike da ci gaba a fagen semiconductor shine na biyu kawai ga girman irin wannan aikin a cikin magunguna.

Matsayin manyan masana'antun semiconductor na duniya a cikin 2020. IC Insight

A cikin 2020, Intel ya yarda cewa shekara guda bayan shirye-shiryen haɓaka na'ura mai sarrafa 7nm. A lokaci guda, Intel, duk da rikicin, yana ci gaba da kasancewa babban mai siyar da samfuran semiconductor a duniya. Lag din bai kasance saboda gaskiyar cewa Intel ba zato ba tsammani ya manta yadda ake yin na'urori masu sarrafawa. Samun ƙididdigewa hanya ce mai matuƙar wahala da tsada.

Sannan kuma, yin na’ura mai sarrafa kwamfuta wani bangare ne na matsalar. Har yanzu yana buƙatar siyarwa. Kuma don sayarwa gwargwadon yiwuwa. Masana'antar guntu wani tsari ne tare da babban matakin raguwa. Manyan dillalai kamar Intel, Samsung, TSMC, Micron, da SK Hynix sun kwashe shekaru suna gina na'urori masu sarrafawa na gaba don wani yanki mai mahimmanci na tallace-tallacen sassan zamani. Ba za a sami masu sarrafa 5nm ba tare da tallace-tallacen 7nm ba. In ba haka ba, wannan masana'antar ba ta aiki kawai - tattalin arzikin zai ruguje.

Bisa ga wannan, Stephen Ezell ya kammala da cewa da wuya kowace ƙasa ita kaɗai za ta iya jurewa ƙarar farashi, sarƙaƙƙiya da sikelin da ake buƙata don ƙirƙira da samar da kayan aikin semiconductor.

Tare da duniya

Sai dai ba kudi ne kawai matsalar da kasar da ke da burin dogaro da kanta za ta magance ba. Masana'antar semiconductor tana da mafi hadaddun sarkar darajar tarwatsewar yanki na kowace masana'antu. Ƙirƙirar kwakwalwan kwamfuta ya haɗa da matakai masu yawa. Kamfanoni daga kasashe daban-daban sun sami ci gaba a cikin matakai daban-daban. Sabili da haka, don adana kuɗi da kuma cimma mafi kyawun inganci, masu siyarwa suna shirye don jigilar kayan su a duniya har sai sun kasance shuɗi a fuska. Haka abin ya faru a tarihi. Wannan ita ce kawai hanyar da masana'antu ke aiki a yanzu.

Anan, kuma, akwai misalin da ba na almara ba. Ana hakar siliki a China. A Japan, ana yanka ingots zuwa faranti marasa rufi. A cikin Amurka, ana juya su zuwa ma'auni na masana'anta tare da haɗaɗɗen da'irori masu aiki. Bayan haka, ana aika samfurin da aka kammala zuwa Vietnam ko Malaysia don haɗuwa, gwaji da marufi (ATP). Abubuwan da aka gyara suna tafiya ko tafiya zuwa China, Koriya ta Kudu da Amurka don haɗa su cikin samfuran ƙarshe. Kuma bayan haka ne, kwamfutar hannu, wayoyin hannu da kwamfyutocin tafi-da-gidanka suna yawo a duniya.

Kuma wannan shine mafi sauƙaƙan algorithm. A haƙiƙa, kamfanoni daga ƙasashe kusan 25 ne ke da hannu wajen samar da na'urar na'ura mai kwakwalwa. Daga hakowa zuwa siyarwa, kayan da ke cikin na'urar da aka gama ta ke haye kan iyakokin duniya matsakaicin sau 70. Gabaɗaya, sufuri kaɗai na iya ɗaukar kwanaki 100 ko fiye.

Logistics a cikin masana'antar semiconductor tsari ne mai kyau. Ba zai yuwu a yi tunanin cewa wata kasa daga cikin kasashen za ta iya dauka tare da kawar da kansu cikin rashin sanin ya kamata ba tare da lalata tattalin arzikin kasar ba.

Shin yana aiki? Kar ku taɓa!

Fara samar da na'urori masu zaman kansu a wata ƙasa ko wata ƙasa yana da tsada da wahala. Kuma ba shi da ma'ana. Kamar yadda na lura a sama, juyin halittar na'urori masu sarrafawa ya dogara sosai kan siyar da abubuwan tsararru na yanzu. Manazarta a Intel ko TSMC suna yin ƙididdige ƙididdiga masu ban mamaki don yin lissafin haɗari kuma suna ware ƙarin kuɗi ga R&D da haɓaka masana'anta fiye da waɗanda aka ware a ƙarshe. Idan kowanne daga cikin manyan masu karfin yana da na'urorin sarrafa kansa, kasuwar tallace-tallace za ta ragu. Samfuran zai zama mara amfani ga kowa da kowa. Zuba jari a cikin bincike zai ragu. Ci gaba zai ragu.

Kamar duk abin da aka rubuta a sama, ba almara ba ne. Daya daga cikin shugabannin TSMC, Mark Liu, ya bayyana cewa Amurka da Turai ba sa bukatar kafuwar nasu a watan Afrilu. Ƙirƙirar sarƙoƙin ƙima a cikin Amurka da EU zai haifar da adadi mai yawa na "ikon da ba shi da fa'ida", in ji shi.

Eh, ƙarancin halin yanzu ba shine mafi kyawun yanayi ga masu samarwa da masu amfani ba. Koyaya, wannan ƙarancin ya yi nisa da na farko a masana'antar. Alal misali, a cikin 2017-2018, kowa da kowa ya rasa DRAM, flash memory modules, microcontrollers, da sauransu. Duk da haka, babu wanda ya fara gina sababbin masana'antu - masana'antu sun warware matsalolinta ba tare da tsangwama daga 'yan siyasa ba. Zai yanke hukunci yanzu.

A cewar Mark Liu iri ɗaya, ƙarancin da ake fama da shi a halin yanzu shine sakamakon ƙarin booking da abubuwa biyu suka haifar. Da farko, dillalai da yawa sun garzaya don maye gurbin Huawei lokacin da Amurka ta ba da umarnin a raba kamfanin na China da kamfanin Taiwan. Na biyu, dillalai sun garzaya don yin odar abubuwan da za a yi a nan gaba saboda cutar ta COVID-19, suna tsoron yuwuwar koma bayan tattalin arziki (wanda, kamar yadda kuke gani a yau, bai faru ba). Sakamakon haka, nauyin da ke kan layin ya ninka sau biyu idan aka kwatanta da yadda aka saba.

A lokaci guda kuma, a cewar shugaban TSMC, ainihin ƙarfin da kamfani ke da shi ya isa ya gamsar da buƙatun da aka saba yi na chips tare da ajiya. Kuma wannan bukata ta al'ada tabbas zata dawo shekara mai zuwa. Abin da kawai ke tabbatar da rashin amfanin gina ƙarin masana'antu don samun kuɗi masu yawa, ba a Amurka ba, ko a China, ko a cikin EU, ko a Rasha.

Kuma eh, da an fara wannan labarin gabaɗayan kuma an gama shi da sauri. Mutum ne kawai ya bayyana yanayin utopian na ra'ayin masana'antar semiconductor mai dogaro da kai ta amfani da misalin Japan. A cikin 80-90s, akwai daidaito tsakanin Amurka da Japan a cikin kasuwar masana'antar semiconductor: sun raba wannan masana'antar kusan rabin. Koyaya, a cikin rabin na biyu na 90s da farkon 00s, ra'ayoyin game da makomar waɗannan ƙasashe sun fara bambanta.

{Asar Amirka ta zaɓi hanyar ba da izini da samarwa ba tare da yin simintin gyaran kafa ba, yayin da Japan, akasin haka, ta yanke shawarar mayar da wani muhimmin sashi na hanyoyin haɗin ƙima a ƙasarta. Don haka, a yau masana'antar semiconductor ta Japan tana raguwa. Rabon Ƙasar Rising Sun bai wuce kashi 10% na kasuwa ba. Ganin cewa rabon Amurka kusan bai ragu ba tun lokacin.